Objective: Develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of frailty among elderly patients with HN.

Methods: A total of 505 elderly patients with HN from 17 hospitalsin China from April 2023 to November 2023 were included in the study. Characteristic features and disease-related information were collected, and geriatric assessments were conducted.Patients were divided by the Geriatric 8 questionnaire into frail and non-frail.The Chi-square test and Mann Whitney U test were used to compare the characteristics of the two groups. Univariate analysis and binary logistic regression were used to explore factors affecting frailty, and a risk prediction model was established in the form of a nomogram.Internal validation was carried out by the bootstrap using receiver operating characteristics, calibration curve,and decision analysis curve.

Results: The incidence rate of frailty in elderly patients with HN was 56.6%(286/505).The nomogram model (including eyelesof chemotherapy, self care ability, nutritional status, and hemoglobin level ) showed good predicting performance in both training and validation sets. In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.867(95%C10.833~0.897), Youden index was 0.557, and the sensitivity and specificity were 85.71% and 69.95%, respectively. The average absolute error of the coincidence degree betwcen the predicted value and the real value was 0.01.

Conclusion: The nomogram showed good predicting value on elderly patients with HN, which can provide a reference for clinical doctors and nurses to identifythe frailty risk.

Disclosures

No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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2024
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